Will Ind make it to the WTC Final?

[zen]

Let's look at the frontrunners for the WTC Final to be held in England in June/July 2021 from the top test teams: 

 

Kangaroos (Aus) are the hot favorite to book a spot. 

• Current points: 296
• Home series vs Ind (4)
• Away series vs. BD (2) and SA (3)  

 

If we estimate that Aus will win at least 6 tests from the 9 that it is scheduled to play, below is how its points could be (not accounting for draws):

 

• 2 tests wins vs. Ind = 60 points 
• 2 tests wins vs. BD = 120 points
• 2 tests wins vs. SA = 80 points
• Estimated total: 260 

 

Current points + Estimate = 296 + 260 = 556 points (unless its wheels fall off) .... Aus could even get over 600 points. 

 

 

 Kiwis (NZ) have emerged as the most likely team to take on Aus in the final. Below is how they could earn their points:

 

• Current points: 180
• Home series vs. Pak (2) and WI (2) 
• Away series vs. BD (2) 

 

Since they are playing 2 tests series, each test = 60 points. If they win 5 tests, they would add 300 points to their kitty.  Below is their estimated points:

 

Current points + Estimate = 180 + 300= 480 points .... if they win 6 tests, they would be at 540 (difficult for other teams to catch it). 

 

 

To stop the Kiwis, below is what Ind and Eng have to do: 

 

Bears (Ind)

• Current points: 360 
• Home series vs. Eng (5)
• Away series vs. Aus (4) 

 

The 5 tests vs. Eng = 24 points/test. 4 tests vs. Aus = 30 points/test. Will not account for draws. 

 

Even if Ind white washes Eng, it would be at 480. NZ is likely to be at even 540, so performances in Aus become key. And it may not be possible to whitewash Eng as the more it plays in Ind, the more it gets accustomed to conditions. Eng is also supposed to play in SL. 

 

Assuming that Ind plays its best cricket and wins 4 tests vs. Eng, it would get 96 points. So its estimated points will be at 456. Therefore, it will have to look to win a test in Aus, for a total of 486. 

  

 

Bulldogs (Eng)

• Current points: 146
• Home series vs. Pak (3) and WI (3) 
• Away series vs. SL (2) and Ind (5) 

 

To reach 480 or more, Eng would try to get 240 points from its series vs. Pak and WI. That would bring the Poms to 386. Winning a test in SL and a couple in India (or some such combination), would give them 60+48=108. Its estimated total would be 494 (not accounting for draws).  

 

 

Of course, Eng and Ind would need to take points from each other, so one doing well vs. the other, automatically, puts the other out if not both (as if both do well, they will share points, helping the Kiwis).  If the Kiwis continue their juggernaut at home, they could become unstoppable, so what the rest do may not matter. 

 

 

To summarize, Kangaroos appears to be set to play the final. If Kiwis continue their good form at home, they have a great chance of meeting the Kangaroos. Bears and Bulldogs would need to play some great cricket to out run one of the teams from Oceania! 

 

 

Note: The points are calculated assuming NZ wins the 2nd Test vs. India. If the result changes, I will update the points accordingly. I have focused on the top four teams in my book. Other teams may have a chance (may be even theoretical) too. 

 

 

Peace! 

 

 

 

PS Title changed from "How to stop the Kiwis in WTC?" to "Will India make it to the WTC Final?

Edited March 2, 2020 by zen
Title changed

[sandeep]

Don't overthink so much.  Be ready for "at least we made the semi-finals", we are  a good competitive team.

[zen]

1 minute ago, sandeep said:

Don't overthink so much.  Be ready for "at least we made the semi-finals", we are  a good competitive team.

There is no semi-final in WTC  .... iirc, top two teams play the final 

[Lannister]

Wow

 

Can't believe we blew it. I was sure we are going to make the finals. 

 

Boot that **** Kohli out. 

[zen]

What is interesting is the emergence of the scenario where Ind may have to do well in Aus and Eng in India. Both teams have to play well in areas that are probably outside their comfort zone! 

 

Because of the revenues potential, the big 3 teams tend to play more against each other. This also means that they compete for points with each other 

[Sandeep99]

I will be glad if we don't qualify. India will surely rolled over at Lords even if we qualify. There is also no way that India is winning a single test in Australia. Against England our home champs will make it 4-1 most likely and we might eke out 96 points at most. 

[Gollum]

Thank you Shastri/Kohli. 

[zen]

20 minutes ago, Lannister said:

Can't believe we blew it. I was sure we are going to make the finals. 

Since Aus-Eng-Ind play against each other (revenue potential), they cannot usually afford to lose to non Big 3 teams .... And in that context, the series loss to NZ is huge, may be even on par with the WC19 SF (a knockout) one .... The nature of WTC format is keeping India (and Eng) in on condition that it do well (but if Kiwis also do well, Kiwis go through) 

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by zen

[SK_IH]

India only struggling due to 4 spells of bad 30 minx in the recent series, otherwise they have been superb and clinical.

[Lannister]

4 minutes ago, zen said:

Since Aus-Eng-Ind play against each other (revenue potential), they cannot usually afford to lose to non Big 3 teams .... And in that context, the series loss to NZ is huge, may be even on par with the WC19 SF (a knockout) one .... The nature of WTC format is keeping India (and Eng) in on condition that it do well (but if Kiwis also do well, Kiwis go through) 

 

I believe India is almost out. This is what we should be discussing now. This NZ test series should've had atleast 3 matches, that way we could've minimize the extent of loss. We have some geniuses in the administration, no doubt, led by captain Kohli. 

 

Can you update the title to something more appropriate? 

[ShoonyaSifar]

Safe to say we will not make it to the finals. A team that can’t compete away from home despite such resources at its disposal does not deserve anything but scorn. 
 

 

[zen]

del

Edited August 22, 2020 by zen

[Ajju]

That bad 6 sessios was huge blow otherwise this is gun side

[zen]

31 minutes ago, Lannister said:

I believe India is almost out. This is what we should be discussing now. This NZ test series should've had atleast 3 matches, that way we could've minimize the extent of loss. We have some geniuses in the administration, no doubt, led by captain Kohli. 

 

Can you update the title to something more appropriate? 

Title changed! 

[nevada]

20 minutes ago, Ajju said:

That bad 6 sessios was huge blow otherwise this is gun side

Very true! The scoreboard doesn't reflect how well this side played. Captain Wrogn led by example, batting really well despite propaganda in some circles that his form is poor. 

[zen]

If Pak/WI can somehow spring up a surprise in NZ, it can bring Ind/Eng back in contention .... But Kiwis are crafty customers esp. at home    

[Lone Wolf]

Can't believe people are saying Aussies will lose to Kiwis.  NZ will offer flat decks like they did vs Eng.  Aussie pace attack will be good enough for them.  All India needs to do is fluke a win in D/N game vs Aussies & Perform well against Eng (4-0) minimum 

[R!TTER]

12 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

All India needs to do is fluke a win in D/N game vs Aussies & Perform well against Eng (4-0) minimum 

You're kidding, a fluke vs historically the toughest side at home (barring India) & that too at full strength 

 

Let me have what you're sipping right now 

[Stan AF]

NZ have a relatively easy schedule

Eng have an easy schedule except against India in India.

Australia have a easy schedule.

 

So yeah there are chances that we won't make it to the finals.

[Lone Wolf]

50 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

You're kidding, a fluke vs historically the toughest side at home (barring India) & that too at full strength 

 

Let me have what you're sipping right now 

I know that is highly unlikely but believe it or not we don't stand a chance against them in other 3 games.  D/N game can be tricky as a great evening session for us can define the game.  3-1 to Aus btw