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How serious is the coronavirus threat in India?


Stradlater

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37 minutes ago, Nikhil_cric said:

I don't believe in GOI numbers. We have a very poor testing rate. It may be somewhat accurate in Kerala or even Karnataka but I think we are severely underestimating the number of cases here. 

Next two weeks are going to be critical. 

Let's all pray to Goddess Bhawani that we are able to sail through these difficult times with as fewer casualties as possible. 

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4 minutes ago, rkt.india said:

Villages will probably be the safest. 

Yes. Have to agree. The farther spreadout our people are the better for everyone at this time. In one word heavily reduce or eliminate human interaction for a good 1-2 weeks.

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3 hours ago, Nikhil_cric said:

I don't believe in GOI numbers. We have a very poor testing rate. It may be somewhat accurate in Kerala or even Karnataka but I think we are severely underestimating the number of cases here. 

Had it been the case there would have been few reports from other states where people would have lined up for testing coz if someone really have it they can't go un-noticed coz of symptoms. Also there would have been more death news.

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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/hindi/music/news/kanika-kapoor-confirms-she-tested-positive-for-covid-19-i-am-feeling-ok-like-a-normal-flu-and-a-mild-fever/articleshow/74727611.cms

 

This liberandu janani evaded screening checks at Lucknow airport and then was at a party where there were senior bureaucrats and politicians. She may have infected 100s of people in the process of keeping up with her social life.

 

After the isolation period, criminal proceedings should be initiated against her with a hefty fine.

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2 hours ago, raki05 said:

Had it been the case there would have been few reports from other states where people would have lined up for testing coz if someone really have it they can't go un-noticed coz of symptoms. Also there would have been more death news.

If in doubt, go with official figures rather than indulge in individual theories. News of someone dying of a worldwide pandemic will spread like wild fire. That is real news through people talking not through private TV channels. This is probably the time to listen to DD. Its very boring but its relatively truer

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Iceland is an island with 350000 population and there are 409 cases . Reykjavik airport sees around 7.5 million passengers over a year. Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore together had about 150 milion passengers in the last year alone. Combine that with our low testing rate and the population density of this country, there is no chance that the official numbers are anywhere close to what the real numbers are or will become. 

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Has anyone noticed all the Bollywood liberandus are now referring to Modi as ‘our honourable PM’ In their tweets and saying we should listen to him for the Janta Curfew day... what happened to the rest of the time previously when they were obvious in their rabid anti Modi views.?

 

now when it is helping their popularity to get behind this curfew request they are giving fake respect to the PM when it suits their agenda.

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No wonder NYT or some ppl here are doubting Thomases. In other countries, they didn’t lockdown airports or quartine earlier. India cancelled visas A week earlier and did a lot of testing at entry points While other airports were letting people without any tests. Also. There is no homegrown coronavirus in India to compare testing numbers with say SKorea. Recent, random testing showed no community spread of virus. India cannot afford tests at such a large scale because of the huge population. The poor who didn’t come in contact in airports or hospitals , can’t be affected with virus. Don’t just speculate, show some factual evidence in India to doubt official numbers which is coming from the MoH. If the numbers were huge, these same usual suspects will be throwing bricks at the government for inaction. Now, there is no scope for that, they resort to doubting the numbers.

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30 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

There is no homegrown coronavirus in India to compare testing numbers with say SKorea. Recent, random testing showed no community spread of virus.

Can't assume this.  The spike in cases goes very, very quickly from a handful to few hundred to thousands.  

 

31 minutes ago, coffee_rules said:

Now, there is no scope for that, they resort to doubting the numbers.

There is ample reason to be skeptical of the numbers. The random testing methodology is not 100% reliable to claim 'no community spread' for one.  Also, the govt is not able to assert that the confirmed cases are travel related or NON community spread -they are not providing information.  So it is quite possible that they are either unaware or suppressing info.

 

There is even a reasonable case to be made for the govt not to be 100% transparent, to avoid panic.  But let's not be hasty in celebrating or declaring victory just yet.  

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14 minutes ago, sandeep said:

Can't assume this.  The spike in cases goes very, very quickly from a handful to few hundred to thousands.  

 

There is ample reason to be skeptical of the numbers. The random testing methodology is not 100% reliable to claim 'no community spread' for one.  Also, the govt is not able to assert that the confirmed cases are travel related or NON community spread -they are not providing information.  So it is quite possible that they are either unaware or suppressing info.

 

There is even a reasonable case to be made for the govt not to be 100% transparent, to avoid panic.  But let's not be hasty in celebrating or declaring victory just yet.  

The point is it will never be accurate in India as we simply dont have the resources. We cannot have a debate over the numbers as it is a silly battle. The question is the growth linear or exponentially? And so far, it is the former and thus why we need to make sure we dont reach Stage 3...

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