Curious case of Mohali: selection conundrum?

[maniac]

Pace friendly wicket,how smart it is to go with 5 bowlers as the quality of England fast bowlers is way better and having 5 bats+ Keeper will be a disaster.

 

Imagine India batting first early wintery morning in Mohali and Anderson in rhythm...not a great sight for an Indian fan.

 

Spin Pitches or flat wickets it makes sense as our lower order like Saha,Jadeja and Yadav are good enough with the bat on those surfaces but not on conditions conducive to fast bowling especially when there are world class bowlers in the other side.

Edited November 22, 2016 by maniac

[Malcolm Merlyn]

9 minutes ago, Samcric said:

4 bowlers pick themselves irrespective of the pitch: 2 spinners and 2 pacers. So my two cents on these 4 first choice bowlers are:

1st Spinner: Ashwin

2nd Spinner: Jadeja. There could be an argument for JY given his performance in last test. However, Jadeja has proven himself over time and we need to see JY prove himself over Jadeja in at least 2-3 matches before being the automatic second spinner. Also, Butler and Woakes (2 right-handers) are likely to replace Duckett and Broad (2 left-handers) thus making a left-arm spinner more useful than an off-spinner given that you have Ashwin in the team as well.

1st Seamer: Shami

2nd Seamer: Bhuvi. Yes, Yadav produced that Bairstow wicket but mostly, he lacked control and provided a release ball to the batsman just when pressure was building up. Also, in the 3 matches Bhuvi has played in 2016, his stats are extra-ordinary even if you consider that pitches were helpful. 3 matches, 12 wickets at an average of 11.25, economy rate of 1.96 and strike rate of 34. The perceived notion that Umesh's pace and reverse swing has cause more trouble than Bhuvi's control and swing needs to be put to test. Can you imagine South Africa not playing Philander on slightly less helpful conditions for someone more pacy?

 

For the Fifth bowler choice, two scenarios arise:

Spin-friendly wicket: Choice should be Jayant Yadav. Don't think we need to debate this much.

Pace-friendly wicket: Here, it gets a bit tricky. At this stage, Yadav is definitely a wiser choice as a bowler than an unknown entity like Pandya. But the problem with playing Umesh is that the batting order from No.7 down looks something like this:

 

Saha (given his current form)

Jadeja (can never be assured of Jaddu the batsman)

Bhuvi (hasn't played an innings of note after the 2014 England tour where he scored 3 fifties)

Umesh

Shami

 

Looks like a very long tail and India may not be able to add more runs after being 5 wickets down. This will probably clinch it for Pandya. But it will not be an easy decision for Kumble and Kohli.

 

So, it seems apart from the home team advantage, team-selection will also be easier and more straight-forward if it is a turner!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Bhuvi over Umesh?

[Samcric]

Bhuvi is the best Indian seamer in terms of average by far. Has taken 41 wickets at 28 runs/wicket compared to career averages of 34 and 38 for Shami and Umesh respectively. In fact he is the only Indian seamer to be averaging below 30 in the last 20 years or so which includes bowlers like Srinath (Avg 31), Zaheer (Avg: 33) etc. Provides far more control than Umesh and keeps up the pressure. Umesh provides at least 1-2 'hit me' balls every over. Becomes very difficult for a captain to set fields and control the game. I also feel Bhuvi is far ahead of Umesh in terms of thinking about plans to get batsmen out, setting a batsman up and understanding a batsman's weakness and consistently bowl at those areas. To me, his use of the short ball as a surprise element has been very impressive. Umesh, sometimes just runs in and tries to bowl fast and either ends up at the pads or way outside the off. Also, his reverse swing has been tackled rather well by English batsmen and he can't swing it both ways with a new ball. I think Bhuvi needs to be given a fair chance to prove his worth as the 2nd Seamer on less helpful pitches. You can't really ask for more than what he has done with his limited chances in 2016. Umesh has bowled well in the 2nd test but 1 wicket in a test is not good enough. Especially when Broad and Anderson got a lot more help from the wicket and looked genuinely more threatening. 

[putrevus]

I want to see Bhuvi over Umesh and see if Bhuvi can deliver on spinning pitches also.

[Samcric]

23 minutes ago, maniac said:

Pace friendly wicket,how smart it is to go with 5 bowlers as the quality of England fast bowlers is way better and having 5 bats+ Keeper will be a disaster.

 

Imagine India batting first early wintery morning in Mohali and Anderson in rhythm...not a great sight for an Indian fan.

 

Spin Pitches or flat wickets it makes sense as our lower order like Saha,Jadeja and Yadav are good enough with the bat on those surfaces but not on conditions conducive to fast bowling especially when there are world class bowlers in the other side.

Ashwin is our No.6 batsman. We may keep arguing about his technique and whether he will be able to face Andersons and Starcs of the world and so on. But against this English team in this series, he has scored runs and looked just fine. If it gets tough on a bouncy Mohali pitch, we will get know how good our No.6 is. For now, it is unfair to question someone who is scoring runs.

[maniac]

1 hour ago, Samcric said:

Ashwin is our No.6 batsman. We may keep arguing about his technique and whether he will be able to face Andersons and Starcs of the world and so on. But against this English team in this series, he has scored runs and looked just fine. If it gets tough on a bouncy Mohali pitch, we will get know how good our No.6 is. For now, it is unfair to question someone who is scoring runs.

Yes Ashwin has done well so far as a batsman and might even get better as he has been taking more responsibilities but you don't go onto a tough pitch with the assumption that Ashwin will do as well as a specialist bat....Ashwin is our strike bowler and his batting is a bonus,that doesn't qualify him to play as a batsman alone in every condition. it is the equivalent of going with 4 bowlers because the 4th bowler is a batsman who has decent bowling credentials.

 

Anyway at this point it is just a speculation that the pitch is going to aid fast bowling,so let us wait and watch...I expect especially Kumble to make the right call on this.

[express bowling]

21 hours ago, Samcric said:

Bhuvi is the best Indian seamer in terms of average by far. Has taken 41 wickets at 28 runs/wicket compared to career averages of 34 and 38 for Shami and Umesh respectively. In fact he is the only Indian seamer to be averaging below 30 in the last 20 years or so which includes bowlers like Srinath (Avg 31), Zaheer (Avg: 33) etc. Provides far more control than Umesh and keeps up the pressure. Umesh provides at least 1-2 'hit me' balls every over. Becomes very difficult for a captain to set fields and control the game. I also feel Bhuvi is far ahead of Umesh in terms of thinking about plans to get batsmen out, setting a batsman up and understanding a batsman's weakness and consistently bowl at those areas. To me, his use of the short ball as a surprise element has been very impressive. Umesh, sometimes just runs in and tries to bowl fast and either ends up at the pads or way outside the off. Also, his reverse swing has been tackled rather well by English batsmen and he can't swing it both ways with a new ball. I think Bhuvi needs to be given a fair chance to prove his worth as the 2nd Seamer on less helpful pitches. You can't really ask for more than what he has done with his limited chances in 2016. Umesh has bowled well in the 2nd test but 1 wicket in a test is not good enough. Especially when Broad and Anderson got a lot more help from the wicket and looked genuinely more threatening. 

Bhuvi has played in only 15 tests and bowled in only 25 innings.  His average is not really comparable with a Srinath who averages 30.49 over 121 innings.  Stats for few innings  fluctuate very quickly.  Bhuvi used to average 36 only 2 test matches ago and his sudden improvement in average has  a lot to do with him playing only in swing-friendly conditions in the last 3 series. ( Although, to his credit, he has made very good use of such conditions, better than our other seamers ).  His wickets per match is only 2.7 which, coupled with an average of 28.04 and SR of 56.7, shows that captains have not always been comfortable bowling him a lot on flat tracks.  If he bowls on flat tracks, the average may go up. 

 

We can compare Bhuvi  our other seamers though.  He definitely is a thinking bowler, can set-up batsmen and is very accurate too. One of our best in terms of conventional swing both ways. Starting to learn reverse swing.  Drawbacks are inability to hit the deck hard with consistency, bowl good bouncers  and lacking the extra pace that often comes in handy on absolute pattas ( and not that necessary on greener tracks ). He has shown the ability to take wickets on seamer-friendly tracks and would be a no-brainer if we get such a pitch. He has never really  taken wickets on flat tracks and his selection there is something better left to the team management.

 

Umesh Yadav has improved his accuracy significantly in the last 4 series and bowled bad lines only in the last test match. He had 4 catches dropped of his bowling in the 1st test against England. He is also unlucky to sit out on all the green-tops or swing friendly conditions in recent times and is chosen only on pattas. He gives us the advantage of extra pace and reverse swing...ideal tools for pattas...but lacks the ability to set up batsmen and bowl good bouncers with consistency.

 

Shami averages 33.49 with a SR of 57.6....but has played a lot on pattas.  He is our only all-condition pacer with extra pace, bounce, ability to bowl good bouncers, conventional swing and reverse swing both ways, seaming ability, and ability to set-up batsmen.  he is our first choice as a fast-bowler.

 

Bhuvi will be a clear favourite over Umesh if we are playing on seamer-friendly tracks but, on pattas, the decision is not easy based on facts.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by express bowling

[sscomp32]

5 hours ago, laaloo said:

Wow nicely done and impressive poll. I edited to make it public. Just wanted to see all dhoni fans saying no for umesh yadav lol

50% right. I don't want umesh but because i want bhuvi to play. Its been more than 2 months from the time he last bowled.  

 

@OP : Brilliant post.  I would like to see only bhuvi replacing umesh. 

[MCcricket]

Mohali has slowed down a bit but it is NOv will be some seam of the track, although a sluggish track

Rahul

Vijay

Pujara

Virat

Rahane

Ashwin

Pandya/Umesh I think Pandya. Can extract good seam with BK

Saha

Bk

Jadeja

Shami

 

[bowl_out]

5 hours ago, jalebi_bhai said:

Don't you think two offies make the spin attack a bit too one-dimensional?

Normally, yes. 

But England has 7 lefties in their batting order.. Now, 6 if Buttler replaces Duckett. So 2 offies against England still seems fine.

 

[goose]

why the hate for Umesh?

[fineleg]

5 hours ago, Samcric said:

Jadeja (can never be assured of Jaddu the batsman)

Actually you can be 100% assured of him (that he will bat like a total buffoon)

 

Wow good that finally @maniac places this much trust in Kumble's selection? (you've gotten past the complaints about "K"? @maniac )

Edited November 23, 2016 by fineleg

[cowboysfan]

I would love to see Bhuvi playing here with Shami.

[Texan]

Very nice analytical OP!

 

Not really sure why the hell have selectors picked 5 pacers (including Hardik) in the squad? Seriously, aren't we playing in India?

 

Umesh has not done enough to keep his spot. He created some chances early in the 1st Test and was unfortunate not to get a wicket then, but since then, his bowling hasn't been that impressive. Just picking an odd wicket here and there is not good enough for a specialist bowler who does not bat. We should replace Umesh with Bhuvi and keep the rest of the squad the same. We should not even bother taking Ishant to Mohali, just let him play Ranji Trophy.

[SecondSlip]

Same team should play 

[Samcric]

1 hour ago, fineleg said:

Actually you can be 100% assured of him (that he will bat like a total buffoon)

 

Wow good that finally @maniac places this much trust in Kumble's selection? (you've gotten past the complaints about "K"? @maniac )

Yes, it is quite amazing how the mindset changes based on whether you have a bat or ball in hand. Jaddu, who does all the simple things right with ball in hand (bowls in right areas consistently, does not do fancy things or try too many different things) is a complete brainless maniac with bat in hand. Has talent with both bat and ball but does stupid things with the bat.

[Texy]

Bring Bhuvi in...he can bat too unlike Ishu

[Vilander]

Allrounders are those that get picked as a batsman or bowler alone. Stokes bats like a dream,tomorrow if he forgets to bowl he can be England's no 4, btw he bowls 140k thats how good an alrounder he is. Pandya needs to be given a chance to succeed, he could be one like stokes for us. Ashwin definitely is the best Indian bowler, he bats pretty solid he has if i am not wrong close to 50 average against England. 

[beetle]

8 hours ago, Malcolm Merlyn said:

 

Why Bhuvi over Umesh?

If we are talking about Anderson being a threat.....how can bhuvi not the first option.

 

[maniac]

3 minutes ago, radhika said:

If we are talking about Anderson being a threat.....how can bhuvi not the first option.

 

Baith jaiyiye baith jayiye....bhuvi ko mauka milega