I honestly think India will win this World Cup...

[Sonix768]

I don't believe in jinx, anti jinx etc. and I don't care that I would look like a fool if it backfires. I just went by the mixture of my instincts , gut feelings, few objective points, pluses and minuses and the team's recent performances and this is what I honestly feel and believe: India will win this World Cup. 

 

I won't lie. I was bit skeptical about India's chances if they were to meet Eng and Aus in back to back knock outs. But from the moment it was confirmed that Ind was facing NZ, I was sure of our chances. The reasons are,

 

1. For the first time our bowling gives me more confidence than our batting. Batting can only save you so much but with good bowling attack you can win the whole thing. Our bowling unit with Bumrah gives me the confidence to take wickets at any stage of the innings. And this makes me believe India can defend any reasonable score and our batsmen are not bad and they can very well make that Reasonable score. 

 

2. NZ are not in great form. They were huffing and puffing in group stages with their non existent openers. Only KW played reasonable and their middle order is suspect to spinners. Their bowling is also inconsistent.

 

If Ind bats first: Our recent matches with them shows, only if they have very helpful bowling conditions at the top they would be in the game, But even then, I believe we would make a decent enough score like about 250 to defend and win, like Aus-NZ game. NZ could have very well lost with the similar target against Ban and SA if not for KW's luck. And we have better catching and bowling unit than Ban and SA. If India chases against them, it will end like Ind-SL/NZ-Pak game where they can make a decent score but fails to defend, as I believe they cannot hit us for 315+ score. So honestly, I don't see India losing to NZ.

 

3. England is not invincible as some made them out to be. If they bat first, they tend to lose way in the middle overs. Even against us, they were pulled down considerably in the middle overs. Root/Morgan/Buttler can be contained with our bowlers. Only if we scored at a reasonably higher rate at the top and had not pathetically wandered at the end we could have had a chance to beat them. If we bat first, we have enough quality to score 320 and that would be more than handful in the Final.

 

4. Australia usually a different beast altogether in the Finals. But if we bat first I believe we can make our way to 300. Top order or bust is the story of the Aus batting so far, so chasing a 300+ target with our bowling is not gonna be easy for them. Finch is not usually great against us and Warner also not been his usual devastating best. Smith, Maxwell, Stoinis has been pathetic so far with only Carey is salvaging some pride for Aus middle order. So yeah, defending 300+ is not gonna be tough in the finals, with their shaky middle order.

 

Chasing against Australia in the Finals. Now this is the only scenario where things will get tricky for us. I believe even if they score 280-300, they will make it really hard for us and if they score 300+ most probably we would be toast. They defended even 260 valiantly in India against us and had us in the floor, only to be saved by Yuvraj and  Raina. Now we have no one in that quality  in the middle order. So restricting them below 280 is imperative because anything below 280 is Thala's territory and he would put his entire skills, **Insert Liam Neeson's "Skills" dialogue from Taken** on the line to take us to glory in the last over, and even last ball. But will we contain them below 280? I think there is good chances that we will, due to the Aus batting conundrum mentioned in the above para ( No, I don't think Handscomb for Khawaja gonna make any difference).

 

Anyway, to arrive at this scenario, Aus has to beat Eng (50% chance), they need bat first against us (50% chance), India need to bowl bit poorly (30% chance), and they need to bat reasonably well from top to bottom to score 300 (30% chance). This is what? Like, 30% of 30% of 50% of 50%? Like 2.25% on whole to have Aus to defend 300 in the finals and that too assuming we wont chase 300+ against them. So 97.75% the odds are in favor of us.

 

And before we venture into "Cricket is a game glorious uncertainties" or "premature ejaculation" territory, let me tell you I know too well that on a given day any team can beat any team, like Kenya did against WI in 96, I am fully aware of the fact that India can very well be bowled out for 40 runs against NZ and be chased down in 4 overs etc. but the chances of that happening are too less, based on what we have been witnessing in the recent past. So, this is what I believe will be the most possible outcome and I am just waiting out the days till July 14, to have these things developed into reality. :)

Edited July 8, 2019 by Sonix768

[ViruDilSeKhelo]

I will be too excited to think about this already. This could be our 3rd world cup title and with the next one in India, we can win that too. Imagine 42 year old Dhoni hitting the winning 6 helicopter 

[ThePhenomenal1]

With all respect to the other teams, I feel that India’s biggest obstacle is india itself. India cannot choke again as it has in the last few ICC tournaments, we need a performance worthy of a semi-final and final. If we lose after playing well then fair enough, but we should not surrender and collapse. Hopefully india go for the win and fight hard, then it will be tougher to beat them.

[TNAmarkFromIndia]

4 hours ago, Sonix768 said:

I am fully aware of the fact that India can very well be bowled out for 40 runs against NZ and be chased down in 4 overs etc. but the chances of that happening are too less, based on what we have been witnessing in the recent past.

We have not won an ICC event since 2013 even while dominating the group stage every time. We always find a way to screw up in the knockouts.

[mishra]

First win against Kiwis. Guptill is due for big score.

[Adorable Fan]

Key to India chances is to ensure Dhoni is made to face less than 15 balls or less. Whenever he comes to bat, this clown pulls the run rate down and puts pressure on his partner. Seriously nobody have guts to question his approach in TM. He should be told its better to go victory than respectable loss. 

[zen]

5 hours ago, Sonix768 said:

Anyway, to arrive at this scenario, Aus has to beat Eng (50% chance), they need bat first against us (50% chance), India need to bowl bit poorly (30% chance), and they need to bat reasonably well from top to bottom to score 300 (30% chance). This is what? Like, 30% of 30% of 50% of 50%? Like 2.25% on whole to have Aus to defend 300 in the finals and that too assuming we wont chase 300+ against them. So 97.75% the odds are in favor of us.

Note that other teams can calculate such odds for them too  

 

But hope your math works out for Ind

 

[First class]

Yes, India has been the best team through out the WC and deserve to lift the trophy. 

[Vilander]

Lone positive thread. Kudos.

[Stan AF]

One at a time fellas, One at a time.

[maniac]

7 hours ago, ViruDilSeKhelo said:

I will be too excited to think about this already. This could be our 3rd world cup title and with the next one in India, we can win that too. Imagine 42 year old Dhoni hitting the winning 6 helicopter 

First let’s hope a “38” year old Dhoni doesn’t screw this up by lunging and then we can talk about “39” year old Dhoni in “4” years time 

Edited July 8, 2019 by maniac

[Gollum]

I am getting the same feeling, Ind vs Eng at Lord's with us winning and Kohli doing something special on the way. 

[DHONI_FANN]

I am getting a very positive vibe this time. I definitely think we will be crowned champions for the third time 

[ViruDilSeKhelo]

14 minutes ago, maniac said:

First let’s hope a “38” year old Dhoni doesn’t screw this up by lunging and then we can talk about “39” year old Dhoni in “4” years time 

Lunging is good for Quads. Of course I would like him to win 3 world cups, history in the making again at Wankhede. Fact is he eliminated Pakistan and Bangbr0s, he will prove himself further in the knockouts.

Edited July 8, 2019 by ViruDilSeKhelo

[Sonix768]

3 hours ago, TNAmarkFromIndia said:

We have not won an ICC event since 2013 even while dominating the group stage every time. We always find a way to screw up in the knockouts.

Yeah, I know..We lost the two 50 over tournaments (T20 is irrelevant here, so leaving it out)

 

In 2015, to be honest, we were simply the third best team in the tournament. Its our luck that the other two teams were put in the other group. In the entire tournament, the only decent team we beat was South Africa. Rest all came against aging/below average teams. So no worries about that result. It was fair reflection.

 

In 2017, it was simply due to the dumb decision to bowl first, team selection and bit over confidence. And luck had its part too. This time we almost sorted out the team selection, we learnt our lesson and won't do stupid "bowl first", and our confidence was kept on check. Luck is not in our hand anyway. So this time we won't do silly mistakes that we did in 2017 finals. That is why I feel it will be different story this time.

[Sonix768]

3 hours ago, zen said:

Note that other teams can calculate such odds for them too  

 

Yeah, Agree. In fact, I have thought things over from their perspective as well.

 

Had I been a NZ fan, I would thank heavens that we at least made it to semis. Just imagine being a NZ fan: Openers were non existent, Ross' form is inconsistent, KW had a good run but he too had couple of luck against SA and Bang otherwise chasing 240s itself a huge task, captain has brainfade moments while defending to a poor chasing team like Pakistan and bowls Munro of all people, failed to get another spinner in that turning track, bundled out without fight against Aus chasing another 240, let alone a 300 from Eng. And what chances would I hope for against the Top of the table team, whose top order is supreme form and bowling is no slouch either and catching is the best among all teams? May be cloudy morning, green pitch and a thundering Boult. Even that wasnt enough in the 5th ODI recently. Only positive so far is ability to recover from disastrous position to decent position, only to concede victory at the end though, or at the mercy of 6 inches against a low ranked team like WI.

 

Had I been a Aus/Eng fan, I would have worried stiff against Semi first before thinking about Finals.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Sonix768

[zen]

28 minutes ago, Sonix768 said:

Yeah, Agree. In fact, I have thought things over from their perspective as well.

 

Had I been a NZ fan, I would thank heavens that we at least made it to semis. Just imagine being a NZ fan: Openers were non existent, Ross' form is inconsistent, KW had a good run but he too had couple of luck against SA and Bang otherwise chasing 240s itself a huge task, captain has brainfade moments while defending to a poor chasing team like Pakistan and bowls Munro of all people, failed to get another spinner in that turning track, bundled out without fight against Aus chasing another 240, let alone a 300 from Eng. And what chances would I hope for against the Top of the table team, whose top order is supreme form and bowling is no slouch either and catching is the best among all teams? May be cloudy morning, green pitch and a thundering Boult. Even that wasnt enough in the 5th ODI recently. Only positive so far is ability to recover from disastrous position to decent position, only to concede victory at the end though, or at the mercy of 6 inches against a low ranked team like WI.

 

Had I been a Aus/Eng fan, I would have worried stiff against Semi first before thinking about Finals.

Other teams' fans will focus on Ind's negatives too and their team's positives such as difficult to lose 4 games in a row, key players will fire, and so on. While great teams are consistent, good teams can go through performance ebbs and flows. 

 

While I think that NZ has a decent chance too (like most teams in KOs), I agree that Ind is expected to start as the favorite. 

[bowl_out]

If India beat NZ in semis and England in the final, then it would be a unique achievement of beating all the teams that played in the WC. 

[Deleted_User_1]

First let’s see if India can beat NZ which on paper should happen. However paper and reality are two different things. If India lineup gets run over by Thunder Boult and NZ has < 250 to score, Williamson and Taylor can score it if the pitch eases up later on.

 

Let’s discuss this tomorrow after the match!

[Vijy]

30 minutes ago, Audiophile said:

First let’s see if India can beat NZ which on paper should happen. However paper and reality are two different things. If India lineup gets run over by Thunder Boult and NZ has < 250 to score, Williamson and Taylor can score it if the pitch eases up later on.

 

Let’s discuss this tomorrow after the match!

esp for the ind team post-2013.